Fangraphs bryce ball8/24/2023 If you watched any of Philadelphia’s playoff run this fall, you might have noticed a group of large and hyperactive 20-somethings bouncing around in the Phillies’ dugout. Harper’s two-month absence with a broken thumb, as well as Nick Castellanos’ three-week spell on the sidelines with an oblique strain in September, should offer some indication of how the Phillies would deal with a vacancy in right field and in the middle of their lineup. And Harper will be back to DH in a matter of months - what money they do spend will go further if spent on a middle infielder and one or more pitchers. More to the point, even with Harper out, the Phillies already have an entrenched starter at first base and two $20 million-a-year corner outfielders. Or the tens of millions in 2024 money that will be required to either extend or replace Aaron Nola, Rhys Hoskins, and José Alvarado. That doesn’t include the likely replacements for (and/or upgrades over) the departing Jean Segura, Kyle Gibson, Noah Syndergaard, and David Robertson. Taking projected arbitration raises into account, the Phillies already have $190.7 million earmarked against the luxury tax for this coming year. Much ink was spilled on how beefy the Phillies became last offseason if they want to pursue the only man who can make this team even beefier in 2023, more power to them. The only like-for-like right fielder on the market is Aaron Judge. Even for half a season, that’s a lot to live without.īut the qualities that make Harper so valuable also make him nearly impossible to replace. Realmuto), RBI, walk rate, batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, wOBA, wRC+, and WPA. Over the past four seasons, he leads Phillies hitters (minimum 400 plate appearances) in the following categories: home runs, doubles, runs scored, walks, stolen bases (tied with J.T. Since joining the Phillies in 2019, Harper has hit. The first option worth discussing: Try to replace Harper. Surely they did not want to kick off their defense of the NL pennant by going three or four months without their franchise player. This obviously leaves the Phillies in a bit of an awkward spot. Now, the party line is that Harper will return to the lineup as a DH around the All-Star break, and maybe start playing the outfield again by the end of the 2023 regular season. In short, you can take that depth chart with Harper in right field and throw it right in the trash. ElAttrache was forced to perform another dreaded proper noun: Tommy John surgery. This is a situation that ought to be familiar to anyone who’s sat in their mechanic’s waiting room and hoped that the phrase “blown head gasket” would not be part of the day’s conversation. An Opening Day start in right field was probably too much to ask for, but maybe he could rehab in the offseason and get back to throwing by mid-spring. For months, Harper and the Phillies settled into a position of anxious uncertainty perhaps the damage to his elbow wouldn’t be so bad.
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